That’s what Morgan Stanley’s rates

2. ENTIRE U.S. YIELD CURVE FLATTENS
That’s what Morgan Stanley’s rates strategists are predicting - by September next year the yield on all U.S. bills and bonds out to the 30-year maturity will be no higher than the Fed funds rate of 2.00-2.25 percent.
They’re not predicting inversion, the harbinger of every recession since 1980 (their peers at Citi are, although they won’t say whether that will happen next year or beyond). Instead they note the parallels with late 2005 when growth was running north of 3.0 percent, the curve totally flattened and it was two years before markets and the economy rolled over.
Growth now is running north of 3.0 percent, the curve is flattening rapidly and is barely 50 basis points from zero. So perhaps it’s not too far-fetched, although few others are sticking their necks out that far.

The curve also flattened in June 1998, a full 18 months before outright inversion and the bursting tech bubble heralded recession in 2001. Will the current flattening peter out around zero? History shows that rarely happens.
3. U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AT 3.7 PERCENT
That’s the view of Goldman Sachs economists, confident that the labor market’s “impressive momentum” built up after nearly a decade of strengthening shows no sign of slowing. An unemployment rate of 3.7 percent would be the lowest since the 1960s.
At 4.1 percent currently, it’s already below levels that Fed officials view as sustainable, Goldman notes. “Our projections would imply an evolution over the current cycle from the weakest labor market in postwar U.S. history to one of the tightest.”
Given how tight the labor market is as the U.S. expansion heads into its ninth year, one might expect the unemployment rate to trough and start edging higher. But Goldman goes further, predicting that it will drop to 3.5 percent in 2019.
PLAUSIBLE RISKS

Analysts at Deutsche Bank have published a list of 30 market risks for 2018, both to the upside and the downside, that would probably spark an increase in volatility to varying degrees.
They are not part of their house view. Rather, investors should think of them as “potential VIX-boosters”, that is scenarios that should spur financial market volatility.
Many argue that the VIX index of implied volatility on Wall Street could do with some boosting. This year it fell to its lowest on record, and by some measures U.S. stocks have had their calmest year in history.

Below are three areas that cover some of Deutsche’s more eye-catching or plausible risks:
1. HIGHER INFLATION
Wage growth in the United States and Germany accelerates, forcing the Fed and ECB to tighten policy quicker than is currently expected. Tighter policy, higher rates and rising bond yields could be felt across all markets.
2. U.S. POLITICAL RISK
There are three potential triggers: the Mueller investigation into alleged interference by Russia in the 2016 U.S. election that helped Donald Trump win the presidency, the U.S. midterm elections, and a continued widening in inequality stoking increased voter dissatisfaction and ultimately leading to more populism.
Any one of them has the potential to sour investor sentiment towards U.S. markets, potentially heralding a correction on Wall Street.
3. BREXIT

Two possibilities here. One, a UK general election delivers a new government. The Conservatives are voted out and Labour is voted in, meaning Jeremy Corbyn is prime minister.
Second, Brexit is reversed. This is far less likely but not completely impossible. Polls show a high degree of regret over the June 2016 vote to leave the European Union, and if Brexit negotiations continue along their chaotic path, don’t rule out completely a scenario arising that effectively involves a do-over.
BLACK SWANS

Strategists at Danish bank Saxo Bank have drawn up a list of “10 outrageous predictions” for next year which, if even one were to play out, would ripple like a tsunami across world markets.
These are extremely low probability/high risk events, and all 10 are listed below:
1. The Fed loses independence as the U.S. Treasury takes charge, enacting a 2.5 percent cap on the 10-year yield after a massive spike higher.
2. The Bank of Japan loses control of its monetary policy. Dollar/yen (currently 113.00) rises to 150.00 and then collapses to 100.00.
3. China issues a yuan-denominated oil futures contract. The “Petro-renminbi” surges, with dollar/yuan (currently 6.61) sliding below 6.0.
4. Volatility spikes on a sudden S&P 500 ‘flash crash’, and the S&P 500 drops 25 percent in a spectacular plunge.

5. U.S. voters push left in the 2018 mid-terms, bond yields spike, with the 30-year Treasury yield (currently 2.77 percent) rips beyond 5 pct.
6. “Austro-Hungarians” launch a hostile EU takeover, as the divide between old/core EU members and more sceptical/newer members widens to an “impassable chasm”, shifting the center of gravity away from the Franco-German axis. The euro (currently $1.18) slides towards parity with the dollar at $1.00 after hitting new highs above $1.60.
7. Investors flee Bitcoin as governments strike back against the largely unregulated crypto-currency. Bitcoin (currently $16,500), plunges to $1,000.

8. South Africa booms after an “African Spring”, and the rand soars 30 pct versus emerging market currencies.
9. Tencent topples Apple as the most valuable company in the world. Tencent shares gain 100 percent.

10. Women take the reins of corporate power. More than 60 Fortune 500 companies end the year with female CEOs.
Compiled by Jamie McGeever Editing by Jeremy Gaunt
Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.


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# by nanacan22 | 2018-04-19 16:19 | 旅遊

Offline retail still has huge business opportunities

The securities times reporter Roman.

As the traditional retail industry seeks to move online, the Internet giants such as alibaba, jd.com and tencent have started to work offline. One important statistic is that it looks like offline retail is being pushed online, but it's a different story. , according to data from the 2017 global sales of $22 trillion, including electronic commerce retail sales accounts for only $1.9 trillion, less than 10%, the proportion of the electricity business highly developed countries, like China's share was 15%.

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Thus, when many people bad-mouthing entity retail entity retail does not actually phenomenon of the "live hard, even on the contrary, offline retail still contain the huge opportunity.

Indeed, e-commerce's price advantage is fading. In taobao, for example, at present each drew up and down the cost of a customer in about 80 yuan, many merchants in order to retain customers, individual profits may be only a few dollars or even a few cents - 9.9 yuan package mail presumably everyone not unfamiliar, right? The 90% of the customer base that e-commerce gets is only 10% of the profit, and the remaining 90% is still occupied by the 10% of the consumers below the line. Not only that, but the incremental development over the years, the "invisible ceiling" e-commerce industry is grabbing the rural market, making it an inevitable choice for both offline and physical stores.

In addition, physical retail is still the main scene of offline consumption for consumers, which is an important consumption place for consumers' emotional catharsis and emotional connection. Retail entity with the professional advantages of on-site service, has a wealth of experience in dealing with consumer choose face to face, in electricity, to strengthen the scale, cost and efficiency cannot win more market share, deepen the experience and the service is becoming a entity retail and online retail is the best weapon for winning the competition. The best proof is that 7-11, a well-known convenience store, made a profit of 20.23 million yen (1.16 million yuan) per person in fiscal year 2016.

Have to admit that the established retail enterprises, especially the relationship had been assumed the responsibility, zero risk management thought, the price cost on to consumers, will rent pressure on to the owner, to transfer responsibility to service providers, so that the electricity quickly to fill the gap and obtain superior opportunity. It is because of the unenterprising nature of traditional retail in the past that the "new retail" will stand out in a flash.

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Although the "new retail" really brought a lot of positive significance to the market, but the essence of the "new retail" retail, did not change, only belong to the category of innovation, "new retail" is "new" management idea and operation method of technical extension, rather than the new things. Physical retailers still have an innate advantage in deepening the nature and creativity of retail, an advantage that is slowly emerging and supported by capital and technology.

When physical stores can't give consumers unique and more value, they are bound to face a price war. But at present, the real core competition of offline retailing lies in the hidden value competition, and price competition is just the appearance. And physical retailers to compete in the real value of effective broken, must share the Internet technology and capital, to consumer lifestyle, establish consumer social circle, spreads through the economy to do work well fans products, not only meet the demand of the functional and the reliability of the user, to seize the core of the user requirements, which completes the user experience, to meet the identity of the user experience, emotional experience and social scene experience.

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# by nanacan22 | 2017-11-08 12:24 | 金融

Knead three times a day for a month with amazing changes

Persist in kneading the abdomen for a month has amazing change

Expert opinion:

The Chinese yoga association

Doctor xie henghui, deputy chief medical officer of Beijing chaoyang hospital

A few days ago, we visited an older member of our family, and after a small talk, the conversation fell on his physical condition.After his retirement, his weight skyrocketed because of lack of exercise.With the increase of weight, blood pressure and lipids were up, and he was suffering from the pain of taking pills all day long, and I quickly asked for the secret of losing weight.

I say the secret of weight loss is to reduce abdomen, because the gastrointestinal digestive system is all gathered here, the small abdomen once protruding is to become fat precursory.The basic reason for obesity is fat hoarding in the abdomen, and the weight loss is about to start from here.

The abdomen is mostly Yin sutra, and the small abdomen is the part of the Yin, the Yin.Negative cold, it is the place that chills favorite to gather, so knead the abdomen very key.The hollow of the palm of the palm of the palace is the fire hole, have the effect of warm feed.Often massage small abdomen to heat with the palm of the hand, not only can let human body to collect adipose to protect the cold, still can raise yuan to fill qi, Yin pei Yang.

Every day early, middle, late each knead a small abdomen, first pressed counterclockwise direction knead, then press clockwise direction knead.The number of kneading is lowest 36 times, or a multiple of 36.The strength should be moderate, if can bring the soft tissue of abdomen to rise better.The small abdomen is always warm, the vitality is enriched, the weight loss will become a very easy matter.



Actually, the effect of kneading the abdomen is not just can reduce weight!

Small kneading effect many!

1 treat constipation

Many people who have constipation do not like to take medicine, some medicine is good, do not take medicine the disease return to the starting point again, form dependence.Actually can try to knead the abdomen, let the body restore its function.

Press knead, force should moderate, the energy concentration, breath nature, long-term persistence, must receive obvious effect.When kneading, the feeling of internal temperature and heat, hunger, or the production of bowel sounds, exhaust and so on, belong to normal reaction, need not worry.

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Stomach underpowered, the stomach can't well to eat food, driven down easily in postprandial nausea, vomiting, abdominal pain, bloating, heartburn, difficulty swallowing, weight loss, etc.Besides the adjustment from food, kneading effect also very good.When kneading, the force should be moderate, breathing naturally, in order to facilitate the gastrointestinal peristalsis.

The spleen deficiency is not long meat

When a child's stomach is weak, it can be eaten especially, but it is still thin, small and yellow.Children can't digest it, just like the products processed in the factory can't be sold out, so the time will be accumulated over time, so the food will be accumulated.

Can try rubbing abdomen, the method of the child's stomach and intestine in the belly, also is the child's abdomen, clockwise rubbing his belly to the child, the child immediately feel comfortable many, than eat disappear of be good at medicine works.
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# by nanacan22 | 2017-09-13 12:39

Trade between England

In their holds these ships carried such English products as were likely to be appreciated in the East. Such commodities were taken as iron, lead, tin, cloth; while the presents to be given to the Indian princes comprised a girdle, a case of pistols, plumes, looking-glasses, platters, spoons, glass toys, spectacles, drinking-glasses and a plain silver ewer. But the progress of this squadron was distinctly slow. From the Thames they had dropped down to the mouth and anchored in the Downs. Here they waited so long for a fair wind that already it was Easter Day before they reached Dartmouth, where they “spent five or sixe dayes in taking in their bread and certaine other provisions,” as one of the58 letters received by the East India Company has it. Leaving Dartmouth they “hoysed their anchors” and sped across the Bay of Biscay, and continued to the south. Off the coast of Guinea they fell in with a Portuguese vessel, which they captured, and from her they took much wine, oil and meal for the good of the squadron entrepreneurship educationThe entrepreneurship development programmes of PolyU develop our young people to be tomorrow's leaders, by offering different forms of out-of-classroom entrepreneurship education and practice to nurture our young people’s innovative and entrepreneurial potentials..

During the month of June they crossed the Equator, and in the following month discharged the Guest victualler—that is to say, they took out of her the masts, sails and yards and whatever else was worth keeping, and then broke down her “higher buildings for firewood, and so left her floting in the sea.” And now scurvy attacked many of the squadron’s crew, so that there were hardly men enough to handle the sails. Even the “merchants tooke their turnes at the Helme: and went into the top to take in the top-sayles, as the common Mariners did.” However, on the 9th of September 1601 they arrived at Saldanha (Table Bay), where they anchored and “hoysed out their boats.” (There were of course no such things as boat davits in those days, the boats being lifted out from the waist of the ship by blocks and ropes.) But so weak were the crews of three of the ships that Lancaster’s crew had to go aboard the other craft and do the work of getting these boats into the sea hong kong preschool kowloon tong-Homantin offers both trilingual and bilingual classes for children under the age of 2 years, and up to the age of 6. We are an IB World school implementing the IB Primary Years Programme and the Columbia University Teachers College Reading and Writing Project. We believe in providing our future generations with a high quality, balanced, and holistic educational experience..

How was it, then, that the flagship’s crew had kept so free from scurvy and were in better health than the other men? The answer is that Lancaster had learnt a lesson from the terrible death-roll which this disease had caused in his previous voyage already noted. “The reason,” runs the document, “why the Generals men stood better in health then the men59 of other Ships was this: he brought to sea with him certaine Bottles of the Juice of Limons, which hee gave to each one, as long as it would last, three spoonfuls every morning fasting: not suffering them to eate any thing after it till noone. This Juice worketh much better, if the partie keepe a short Dyet, and wholly refrains salt meate, which salt meate, and long being at the sea is the only cause of the breeding of this Disease. By this meanes the Generall cured many of his men, and preserved the rest.” Considering this practical proof of the value of lime juice as an anti-scorbutic, it is surprising that it was not till many years later lime juice was, as it is to-day, always carried in English ships and given out to the men, especially in wind-jammers.

After allowing the men shore leave and laying in very necessary provisions, the squadron got under way and left again on 29th October, doubling the Cape of Good Hope on the 1st of November, “having the wind West North-west a great gale.” Madagascar was reached on 17th December, and they remained there until 6th March. Actually they did not even sight India, but held on across the Indian Ocean until they reached those Nicobar Islands visited in the previous voyage. A short stay was made and then they pushed on to the southward till they came to Acheen, which is at the north-west extremity of Sumatra, arriving there on the 5th of June 1602. Here Lancaster was entertained hospitably by some of the Dutch factors who had already established themselves, and also obtained a concession from the King of Acheen granting freedom of trade and immunity from paying customs. Thus a beginning was made, if not actually with India,60 at any rate with a part of the East Indies. Trade between England and the Orient was established, only to be developed in the years that were to follow oil vaporizer Shenzhen Transpring Enterprise Ltd. is one of the leading Oil Vaping Pen and vaporizer (A3 Vape Cartridge etc) manufacturer and supplier in China. Over the years, we have been serving many customers from USA, ....

In order to proceed with their trade, Lancaster put ashore two of the factors who had come out with him from England, these employing their time now in getting together a cargo of pepper against the date of Lancaster’s return. Meanwhile the squadron sailed from Acheen on 11th September 1602, and then engaged in that favourite occupation of roving about till some well-filled merchantman fell into his hands, relieving her then of her valuable cargo. Strictly speaking, as the reader is aware, this expedition to the East Indies had been fitted out for the purpose of opening up trade. But no Elizabethan sailor could content himself with such lawful limits. Privateering was in his blood: he was always spoiling for a fight at sea, especially against any Spanish or Portuguese ship. It was a much quicker way of winning wealth and, incidentally, of paying back old scores to the people who had tried to keep Englishmen out of the strange seas of the world. And Lancaster was a sufficiently good strategist to know that if he selected some pivot of a busy trade-route, such as some narrow straits, all that he had to do was to hang about there long enough and it was only a question of time as to whether a big haul would be made. He could rely implicitly on his own men and their gunnery, even against superior strength. It only wanted the opportunity, and that, again, demanded merely a little patience.
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# by nanacan22 | 2017-05-09 12:28

shadow of the old St

THE Campion family seem to have been both gentlefolk and yeomen, and to have been widely scattered over the land: in Northamptonshire, Warwickshire, Essex, Sussex, and Devon. Nothing is definitely known, at present, as to which branch of the Campion family the Blessed Edmund belonged. Unlike many of the martyrs of Tudor and Stuart times, he was what is called a “born” Catholic: in more accurate phrase, a born heathen, as we all are! but baptized in his parents’ religion soon after his birth in London, on the Feast of St. Paul the Apostle, January 25, in the year 1540, New Style. Edmund had two brothers, and a[2] sister, none of whom played any great part in his after life. By the time he entered the Society of Jesus his father and mother were both dead: his written expression is that he had “hopes” they died in full communion with the Church; but evidently he did not know, being abroad, how it had fared with them in those terribly stormy days for Christian souls bicelle b5 gel .

Edmund Campion, senior, was a book-seller, evidently in good standing, but not well to do. Some rich London guildsmen (probably of the Grocers’ Company, for it was they who maintained him later), befriended the promising little boy at just the right moment, when his father was reluctantly going to apprentice him to a trade; and he was sent, at their joint expense, to a good Grammar School. Afterwards, under the same patrons, he entered Christ Hospital, then lately set up in Newgate Street (out of confiscated Franciscan funds and the generosity of Londoners), as the “foundation” of the sixteen-year-old king, Edward VI. Here the small Edmund, full of life and laughter, banded and belted,[3] ran about in now extinct yellow petticoats, and one of the earliest pairs of those historic yellow stockings bicelle b5 gel .

He was thirteen, and quite famous already in the school-boy world of London for his learning and his attractive presence and speech, when Queen Mary Tudor, who had just succeeded to the English throne, entered her city in state. Out of many hundred eligible youngsters it was he who was chosen to stand up before her on a street platform, under the shadow of the old St. Paul’s Cathedral, and shrilly welcome her in the Latin tongue. The Queen sat on a white horse, robed in gold-embroidered dark velvet, crimson or purplish, with the great sword carried before her by the boyish Earl of Surrey, with eight thousand mounted lords and gentlemen on either side, all the glittering ambassadors, and a bevy of beautifully apparelled ladies. On certain figures in that splendid and noisy pageant the child might have looked with pensive eyes, had he been able to forecast his own future; as it was, he cannot have failed to observe the Queen’s younger sister, the thin, watchful,[4] spirited girl who was known as the Lady Elizabeth. Another was there, of high office, though not of high descent, who was all goodness, piety and generosity, and may well have been drawn to notice Edmund Campion for the first time on that sunshiny afternoon in August, 1553. This was Sir Thomas White, then Lord Mayor of London, a staunch Catholic. He was an unlearned man and childless, who became, later, co-founder of the Merchant Taylors’ School, and enricher of many towns. By 1555 he had opened his College of St bioderma matricium.

John Baptist, once a Cistercian house, at Oxford. The Grocers’ Company at once approached him to admit their Blue-coat ward as a scholar; this he did, and conceived, almost as soon, a marked attachment to him; and two years later (when Edmund was not yet eighteen!) he made him a Senior Fellow. Campion’s other early friends at the University were his first tutor, John Bavand, and Gregory Martin, a Foundation Scholar like himself. These two showed towards him a lifelong devotion.
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# by nanacan22 | 2016-08-09 12:58